Former President Donald Trump is reportedly pursuing a strategy aimed at controlling a significant portion of the world's oil supply, from Iran to Venezuela and beyond.
For a considerable period, including during Trump's first term, this ambitious "smash and grab" idea to corner the global energy supply was largely dismissed as hyperbole or even a joke by outside analysts and political opponents. However, in his second administration, a version of this strategy has reportedly evolved into a foundational element of American power projection, both domestically and internationally.
This policy, surprisingly, has not garnered widespread public attention, despite operating in what some describe as plain sight. It goes by the somewhat dramatically named doctrine of "energy dominance." To vastly oversimplify, the plan reportedly boils down to three core steps: first, to maximize America's share of the world's energy supply, with a particular focus on fossil fuels; second, to leverage this dominant position aggressively; and third, to compel both foreign rivals and domestic entities to conform to US energy policy.
The application of this strategy has been evident in several recent geopolitical maneuvers. Consider the new round of attacks on Iran. When questions arose about the potential impact on global oil prices, Trump's advisers reportedly assured him not to worry. Their reasoning was that the US and its allies now controlled so much of the world's oil that Iran couldn't make a significant impact. Indeed, following the attacks, crude oil prices did not surge excessively or for an extended period, peaking at $79 per barrel before settling back down to $66 two days later.
This price stability, it is suggested, was partly due to the abundance of cheap American and allied crude oil readily available on the market. Energy Secretary Chris Wright later reportedly pointed to this as "perfect evidence of Trump's energy dominance agenda, you know, growing production in the United States," suggesting it was a clear sign that the US could continue to exert pressure on Iran with minimal economic blowback on global markets.
Then there's the situation in Venezuela. When American forces reportedly seized Caracas' dictator Nicolas Maduro in early January, Trump declared that the US was going to "run the country." His strategy for doing so revolved around controlling Venezuela's vast oil reserves: specifically, dictating where its oil flowed and who ultimately profited from it. In a controversial move, Wright and other US officials reportedly chose to align with Maduro's business friendly deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, rather than recognizing Edmundo González, the opposition leader who was acknowledged by the US as the president elect after the 2024 vote. This decision, critics argue, bypassed democratic principles in favor of direct control over energy resources.
This drive towards energy dominance shows few signs of slowing down. Venezuela is one of 12 members of OPEC, the influential global oil cartel that has shaped world energy prices for decades. One top analyst, David Doherty of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, laid out a scenario where Trump could leverage Venezuela to gain backdoor control of, or at least serious influence over, OPEC, which accounts for about half of all the oil on the international market.
Doherty's analysis suggests that Trump may already possess some of that leverage. Immediately following the new round of attacks on Iran, the OPEC countries surprisingly agreed to increase their oil production slightly, a move that typically helps cool global prices. Even Russia, traditionally an ally of Iran, reportedly agreed to increase its production by 62,000 barrels per day. Doherty observed, "That's like the ultimate energy dominance, right? Because it's not just America's energy anymore. It's the world's."
This aggressive energy strategy, if it continues to unfold as described, could fundamentally alter global power dynamics, placing vast control over international energy supplies squarely in Washington's hands.
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